Although oddsmakers generally love making the Seahawks a big favorite at home, that’s definitely not the case this week. In the early odds for Week 13, the Seahawks have opened as a 6-point underdog to the 10-1 Eagles.
Six points might not sound like a lot, but that’s huge spread for a Seahawks team that has been favored in nearly every home game they’ve played since drafting Russell Wilson in 2012. Including their five home games this season, the Seahawks have been favored in 41 of the 45 home games they’ve played since Wilson’s rookie year. In those 45 home games, the Seahawks have gone 36-9 and have never lost by more than seven points.
You can literally count on one hand the number of times the Seahawks have been a home underdog since Wilson took over. In three of the games where the Seahawks were a home dog, not only did they cover, but they also won outright. In 2012, the Seahawks beat the Cowboys (27-7), Packers (14-12) and Patriots (24-23) in games where they were an underdog of 3, 3.5 and four points.
The other game where the Seahawks weren’t favored at home came this year in a Week 11 loss to the Falcons. In that game, which Seattle lost 34-31, the Falcons closed as a 1-point favorite.
The point spread against the Eagles marks the first time since 2011 that the Seahawks have been an underdog of six or more points at home. Seahawks coach Pete Carroll has actually fared well when he’s a big underdog at home. Since he took over as coach in 2010, the Seahawks have been an underdog of three or more points a total of 13 times, and in those games, they’ve gone 9-4 straight-up and 11-2 against the spread.
The fact that the Seahawks opened as a 6-point underdog might only be the second most surprising point spread of the week. The honor for most surprising might go to the 9-2 Vikings, who have opened as an underdog against the Falcons.
Let’s get to the early odds.
NFL Week 13 early odds
(All lines from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, all games on Sunday unless noted)
Redskins (5-6) at Cowboys (5-6), Thursday
Opening line: Cowboys, -2.5 points
The Cowboys open as the favorite here despite the fact that they haven’t won or covered in a single game over the past three weeks. The Cowboys’ current three-game losing streak is one of the ugliest in team history and that’s mainly because the Cowboys haven’t been able to score. Dallas hasn’t hit the 10-point mark in any game during their losing streak. If there’s one team that could fix their woes, it’s the Redskins. The Cowboys have won five of their past six games against Washington, which includes a win in Week 8 where the Cowboys covered as a three-point favorite with a 33-19 win. The Cowboys have actually won — and covered — this season in the past three games they’ve played where they were favored.
Vikings (9-2) at Falcons (7-4)
Opening line: Falcons, -3 points
The Vikings have opened as an underdog for just the third time this season. The Vikings went 1-1 in those first two games, but we should probably note that the one win came in Week 6 when they injured Aaron Rodgers (the loss came in Week 2 to the Steelers in a game where the Vikings didn’t cover the 8.5-point spread). The Vikings have been one of the safest teams to bet on this season, going 8-3 ATS, which is the second-best mark in the NFL. During their current seven-game winning streak, the Vikings have gone 6-1 ATS. Of course, the Falcons are also pretty hot: Atlanta is currently on a three-game winning streak and they’ve covered in each one of those wins.
Patriots (9-2) at Bills (6-5)
Opening line: Patriots, -8.5 points
The Patriots have had so much recent success in Buffalo that it’s almost starting to seem more like their home than the Bills’. The Patriots have won 12 out of the past 13 games in this series that have been played in Buffalo dating back to 2004. Tom Brady almost always brings his ‘A’ game to Buffalo with the Patriots averaging 38.6 points per game in their past five trips to the city. The Patriots have turned into one of the safest bets in the NFL over the past five weeks. Since Week 7, the Patriots have won five in a row and covered in all five games, including Sunday’s win over the Dolphins, where the Pats covered as a 17.5 point favorite. If you’re looking for a reason to bet the Bills, Buffalo is 3-1-1 ATS at home this year, which is one of the best home marks in the NFL.
49ers (1-10) at Bears (3-8)
Opening line: Bears, -5.5 points
If this seems like a giant point spread for the Bears, that’s because it is. The 5.5 points here marks just the second time since 2013 that the Bears have been favored by five or more in a game. Coincidentally, the one other time came in 2015 when the Bears were favored by 6.5 over the 49ers. The Bears lost that game. Although this might seem like a big spread for the Bears to cover, especially when you consider that they’ve only averaged 13.8 points per game over the past four weeks, Chicago has actually been one of the best teams in the NFL when it comes to covering at home this season. In six home games, the Bears have gone 4-1-1 ATS, which is the fourth-best mark in the NFL. These two teams actually played in Week 13 of last season, with the Bears winning 26-6 at home in a game that was a pick ’em. Betting on the Bears in December is always a risk, though: Chicago is 3-11 straight up in their past 14 December games.
Buccaneers (4-7) at Packers (5-6)
Opening line: Pick ’em
Sending a team from Florida on the road in December almost isn’t fair because it almost always turns out to be an automatic win for the home team, especially when that team from Florida is the Buccaneers. Since 2013, the Bucs have gone 1-8 in December road games, and we should probably note that their only win came in warm, sunny San Diego. This year, Tampa has been bad in every month when they leave home: The Bucs are 1-5 on the road in 2017 and 1-4-1 ATS. One thing you’ll want to keep an eye on here is whether or not Jameis Winston returns, which actually might not be an upgrade. The only time the Bucs covered the spread on the road this year came with Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB. Winston has gone 0-4 on the road and 0-3-1 ATS.
Opening line: Titans, -7 points
These two teams have already met once this season and it turned into one of the biggest blowouts of the year with Houston steamrolling the Titans 57-14 as a 2.5-point underdog back in Week 4. This time around though, things are slightly different and that’s mainly because the Texans won’t have Deshaun Watson. Although the Titans have been hot lately, they’ve been a gambler’s nightmare. In their past six games, the Titans have gone 5-1, but just 2-3-1 ATS. At 4-6-1 ATS overall, the Titans currently have the worst mark against the spread for any team that currently has a winning record. As for the Texans, they’ve gone 1-2 ATS since losing Watson before Week 9.
Broncos (3-8) at Dolphins (4-7)
Opening line: Pick ’em
If you’re looking for a game to not bet this week, this one seems like a good option. For one, we don’t know who will be the starting quarterback for either team. The Dolphins could send out Jay Cutler or Matt Moore while the Broncos could end up sending out whoever impresses John Elway the most in practice this week. Both of these teams have been horrible at covering the spread this season, with the Dolphins going 3-6-2 and the Broncos going 2-8-1. Denver’s ATS mark is the second-worst in the NFL, ahead of only the Browns. Although the Broncos’ ATS mark is bad, the Dolphins are 0-4-2 ATS in their past six games. It just doesn’t get any worse than that. Wait, actually it does: The Broncos are 0-7 ATS during their current seven-game losing streak.
Opening line: Chiefs, -4.5 points
At one point this season, the Chiefs were the safest bet in football. During their 5-0 start, Kansas City covered in every single one of those wins. Since then, the Chiefs have gone 1-5 straight up and ATS. On the other hand, the Jets have quietly been one of the best teams to bet on all season when they’re playing at home. In six games at MetLife Stadium this year, the Jets have gone 5-1 ATS, which is tied with the Vikings for the best home mark in the NFL. The Chiefs haven’t beaten the Jets on the road since 2002.
Opening line: Jaguars, -8.5 points
Here’s the craziest gambling stat you’re probably going to hear this week: The Jaguars have been the safest bet in the NFL during odd weeks. As we head into Week 13, the Jags have gone 6-0 straight up and against the spread in the five games they’ve played during an odd week (Weeks 1, 3, 5, 7, 9 and 11). Basically, the Jaguars have been unbeatable every other week and this is an odd week. One of those odd week wins came in Week 7 when the Jaguars beat the Colts 27-0 on the road as a 3-point favorite back in Week 7. Including that win, the Jags have won three of their past four in this series.
Opening line: Ravens, -3 points
The Ravens will be hosting the Lions for just the third time in franchise history this week, and so far, things haven’t gone well for the Lions in Baltimore, with Detroit going 0-2. That being said, the Lions have actually been one of the NFL’s best bets on the road this year. In five games, Detroit has gone 3-1-1 ATS, which is the third-best mark in the NFC. Speaking of the NFC, the Ravens have had some problems when it comes to playing teams from that conference. Since 2015, the Ravens are 3-8 straight up and 2-8-1 ATS against NFC teams.
Browns (0-11) at Chargers (5-6)
Opening line: Chargers, -13 points
This spread might seem gigantic, but in reality, no point spread is too large for the Browns. When it comes to covering the spread, the Browns have been the worst team in the NFL this season, going 2-9 ATS. That includes a 1-2 mark ATS when they’re an underdog of 10 or more points. Since the beginning of the 2015 season, the Browns are 3-8 ATS when they’re an underdog of 10 or more. The one important thing to keep in mind here is that the Browns only won exactly one game last year, and that game came against the Chargers. Back in Week 16 of 2016, the Browns won 20-17 outright as a 4.5-point underdog.
Opening line: Raiders, -8.5 points
The Giants have only been good at one thing this year and that’s beating AFC West teams. Although the Giants are 0-8 against NFC teams, they’re 2-1 against AFC West teams and in those two wins, they covered two of the biggest spreads of the year. Back in Week 6, they beat the Broncos 23-10 as a 13.5-point underdog. The Giants then followed that up five weeks later with a 12-9 win over the Chiefs as a 10-point underdog. The Giants are actually almost always a smart bet against AFC teams. Since the beginning of the 2015 season, the Giants are 8-3 ATS against the AFC. In that same span, the Raiders are 2-7 ATS against NFC teams. One other thing to keep in mind: Eli Manning is 3-0 all-time against the Raiders.
Opening line: Saints, -3.5 points
The Saints are favored in this NFC South showdown, which shouldn’t be too surprising considering what they did to the Panthers the last time these two teams played. Back in Week 3, the Saints, who were a 5-point underdog, rolled to a 34-13 road win over the Panthers. When it comes to covering the spread against divisional opponents, the Saints have been the best in the NFL over the past few years. Since the beginning of 2015, the Saints have gone 11-3 ATS against NFC South opponents. On the other hand, the Panthers have been one of the safest road bets in the NFL this year. In six road games, Carolina has gone 5-1 ATS, which is the best mark of any team in the NFL.
Opening line: Rams, -6 points
The last time these two teams met came back in Week 7 when the Rams throttled the Cardinals 33-0 in a game where the Rams were favored by three points. Despite the fact that the Cardinals lost Carson Palmer in that game, they’ve actually done better against the spread since putting him on IR. With Palmer under center, the Cards went 1-6 ATS this season, but with the combo of Drew Stanton/Blaine Gabbert playing, the Cardinals have gone 2-1-1 ATS, including an upset win over the Jaguars on Sunday as a 6-point underdog. The win over the Jags actually marked the first time this year that that Cards covered a game at home (They were 0-4 ATS before Week 12). As for the Rams, they’re 5-1 ATS in their past six games.
Eagles (10-1) at Seahawks (7-4)
Opening line: Eagles, -6 points
Betting on the Eagles has almost been like printing money at home this year. Through 12 weeks, the Eagles are 9-2 ATS, which is the best mark of any team in the NFL this year. Even though six points seems like a large spread, especially for a game in Seattle, the Eagles are the one team that might be able to cover it. This game will mark the seventh time this season that the Eagles have been favored by five or more points and in the previous six games, the Eagles went 6-0 both straight up and against the spread. These two teams actually played last year in Seattle, with the Seahawks covering as a 6.5-point favorite in a 26-15 win. The Eagles haven’t won in Seattle since 2008.
Steelers (9-2) at Bengals (5-6)
Opening line: Steelers, -7 points
If there’s been one easy way to make money over the past six years, it’s betting against the Bengals in a primetime game. You probably already know about how bad the Bengals have been in the postseason, well, they’ve been almost as bad in night games. Since the beginning of the 2013 season, the Bengals have gone 4-11 in primetime games, although they’ve done slightly better against the spread, going 6-8-1. The only bigger lock than a Bengals primetime loss is a Steelers win in December. Since the beginning of the 2014 season, the Steelers have gone a ridiculous 11-1 straight up in December and 10-2 against the spread. Even if you throw the Bengals’ ugly primetime record out the window and ignore the Steelers’ dominance in December, it’s hard to ignore this fact: The Steelers have won eight of the past nine games in this series, including the playoffs. That total includes a Week 7 win where the Steelers covered as a 4-point favorite in a 29-14 win.