2017 College Bowl Odds: Confidence football pool picks from advanced computer model


With the 2017-18 college football postseason now locked in, fans across the nation will be entering bowl confidence pools and pick ’em leagues with their friends and coworkers. These are the contests where you make straight-up picks for every bowl game and then assign a confidence ranking based on how strongly you feel about each one.

The picks you have the most confidence in get the highest numbers, while the lowest numbers are assigned to picks you’re least sure about. The goal is to pile up as many points as possible.

With so many games between teams that aren’t familiar with each other and so many evenly matched games, you need to see who SportsLine’s advanced computer model has the most confidence in.

This same model had double-digit profitable weeks last season and was an astonishing 8-1 on straight-up picks on Championship Weekend, nailing several close games like UCF’s win over Memphis and Ohio State’s victory over Wisconsin.

Now it has simulated every bowl game 10,000 times and come up with some surprising results that will help you pick every game and properly assign confidence points. You can only get these projections over at SportsLine.

We’ll give the top one away: The model loves Florida Atlantic over Akron in the Boca Raton Bowl. The Owls are winning a whopping 80.2 percent of simulations in this game.

Coach Lane Kiffin has made FAU one of the most dangerous Group of Five teams in the nation. The Owls rolled to a Conference USA title by trouncing North Texas 41-17 in the championship game.

FAU opened the season losing two of three, but since then have rolled to a nine-game winning streak and a flawless 8-0 conference record. Kiffin brings a balanced offensive attack that finished first in Conference USA in total and scoring offense. Now they get what amounts to a home game in a bowl played in FAU Stadium against an Akron team that was just 7-6 on the year and gave up an average of 432.2 yards per game.

Lock the Owls in with the highest possible confidence and you’ll be off to a winning start on your bowl picks.

On the other end of the spectrum, the model likes Northern Illinois to beat Duke in the Quick Lane Bowl, but the Huskies are only winning 50.4 percent of simulations in what is expected to be a tight game.

The Blue Devils come into the game at 6-6 as they prepare to face an 8-4 MAC squad. Both teams have been streaky this year, and with no common opponents and little data to provide a strong lean towards either side, this is a game to avoid a high confidence number on.

Take Northern Illinois, but go with the lowest possible points with this pick for a game that the model views as barely more than a coin flip.

So who wins every single College Football Bowl Game and how confident should you be in every single selection? Visit SportsLine now to see which teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations and which picks you can lock in with the most confidence, all from the model that went an amazing 8-1 on straight-up picks during Championship Weekend, and find out. 

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